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Thin nationwide organization
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Inexperienced candidate bench
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Limited rural machinery
Most credible analyses put the NCP in single-digit vote share territory on its own—enough to matter, not enough to govern.
The Jamaat alliance: arithmetic, not amnesia
This has cost the NCP internally—resignations and protests from members who see Jamaat as incompatible with the 2024 uprising’s secular ethos. That backlash matters electorally.
What the math says
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Jamaat has deep roots in conservative pockets and disciplined voters.
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Combined, an NCP–Jamaat bloc could plausibly capture 10–20% of seats in a fragmented field.
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That’s kingmaker territory, not a governing mandate.
Who is still the frontrunner?
Despite the churn, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remains best placed to secure a plurality or majority, under the shadow leadership of Tarique Rahman. Its nationwide network, vote discipline, and muscle memory matter on election day.
Rebutting the “baccha party” narrative
A December 2025 India Today article amplified comments by a Pakistani youth politician threatening missiles if India interfered in Bangladesh—deriding such talk as immature while invoking the 1971 surrender of 93,000 Pakistani troops and alleging a Pakistani “clawback” via Jamaat.
Here’s the grounded counter:
