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Jamaat has deep roots in conservative pockets and disciplined voters.
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Combined, an NCP–Jamaat bloc could plausibly capture 10–20% of seats in a fragmented field.
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That’s kingmaker territory, not a governing mandate.
Who is still the frontrunner?
Despite the churn, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remains best placed to secure a plurality or majority, under the shadow leadership of Tarique Rahman. Its nationwide network, vote discipline, and muscle memory matter on election day.
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