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Moral capital from toppling an entrenched order
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Urban and campus appeal
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Media agility
Constraints
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Thin nationwide organization
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Inexperienced candidate bench
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Limited rural machinery
Most credible analyses put the NCP in single-digit vote share territory on its own—enough to matter, not enough to govern.
The Jamaat alliance: arithmetic, not amnesia
This has cost the NCP internally—resignations and protests from members who see Jamaat as incompatible with the 2024 uprising’s secular ethos. That backlash matters electorally.
What the math says
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Jamaat has deep roots in conservative pockets and disciplined voters.
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Combined, an NCP–Jamaat bloc could plausibly capture 10–20% of seats in a fragmented field.
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That’s kingmaker territory, not a governing mandate.
