While the government touts its anti‑smuggling drive, the numbers tell a different story: Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbouring countries ballooned to $4.97 billion in the July‑September 2026‑27 quarter, a 26.62 % jump from the same period a year earlier. That surge is not an abstract macro‑economic glitch – it translates into higher fuel, food and medicine prices that pinch the pocket of every family in Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and beyond.
China’s Dominance, India’s Unexpected Surge
According to the Dawn e‑paper, imports from China rose 19.76 % to $5.82 billion, while exports to China grew only 17.95 % to $663.57 million. The bilateral deficit with China widened by $858.808 million, accounting for roughly 82 % of the total deficit expansion across the nine neighbours. In plain terms, every extra dollar spent on Chinese goods is a dollar that could have gone to a farmer’s seed, a driver’s diesel or a mother’s medicine.
Equally striking, the same Dawn report shows that imports from India jumped 68.90 % to $61.74 million, even though the customs data recorded zero exports to India in the quarter. The rise in Indian imports is not a statistical fluke; it reflects a market reality where Indian rice, textiles and consumer goods are still in demand, but the official trade channel is officially shut.
