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Thin nationwide organization
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Inexperienced candidate bench
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Limited rural machinery
Most credible analyses put the NCP in single-digit vote share territory on its own—enough to matter, not enough to govern.
The Jamaat alliance: arithmetic, not amnesia
On December 28, 2025, the NCP announced a seat-sharing pact with Jamaat-e-Islami. The aim is straightforward: avoid splitting anti-establishment votes in select constituencies.
This has cost the NCP internally—resignations and protests from members who see Jamaat as incompatible with the 2024 uprising’s secular ethos. That backlash matters electorally.
What the math says
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