The Jamaat alliance: arithmetic, not amnesia
On December 28, 2025, the NCP announced a seat-sharing pact with Jamaat-e-Islami. The aim is straightforward: avoid splitting anti-establishment votes in select constituencies.
This has cost the NCP internally—resignations and protests from members who see Jamaat as incompatible with the 2024 uprising’s secular ethos. That backlash matters electorally.
What the math says
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Jamaat has deep roots in conservative pockets and disciplined voters.
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Combined, an NCP–Jamaat bloc could plausibly capture 10–20% of seats in a fragmented field.
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That’s kingmaker territory, not a governing mandate.
Who is still the frontrunner?
Despite the churn, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remains best placed to secure a plurality or majority, under the shadow leadership of Tarique Rahman. Its nationwide network, vote discipline, and muscle memory matter on election day.
