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Commodities, Not Headlines: How Copper, Oil & Gas, and Fertilizer Actually Move PSX Earnings

How global commodities like copper, oil, gas, and fertilizer actually impact PSX earnings. A clear, data-driven guide to understanding sector performance beyond headlines.

Commodities
  • Dollar-linked revenue

  • Hard cash flows

  • Sovereign-adjacent balance sheets

Two names dominate this space:

  • Oil & Gas Development Company

  • Mari Petroleum

Why Oil Prices Alone Don’t Explain Earnings

A common mistake is assuming higher oil prices automatically mean higher profits. In Pakistan, earnings depend on:

  • Wellhead pricing formulas

  • FX parity adjustments

  • Circular debt recovery

  • Government receivable timelines

This is why OGDC and Mari often behave like macro shock absorbers rather than high-beta commodity trades.

Structural Strength of Upstream Names

  • Revenues are linked to international benchmarks

  • Costs are largely rupee-based

  • Balance sheets carry large cash buffers

In periods of FX stress or trade deficit pressure, upstream oil & gas often becomes a defensive anchor for PSX.

This is also why these stocks feature so prominently in PSX market capitalization rankings—they are not just companies; they are financial stabilizers.


Fertilizer: The Most Misunderstood Sector on PSX

Fertilizer is where most retail narratives go wrong.

Demand for fertilizer in Pakistan is not cyclical. Farmers do not stop sowing crops because GDP slows. What changes earnings is not volume—it is gas pricing.

Key players include:

READ:   SYSTEMS LTD: Insider Selling, Valuation Signals, and How Smart Investors Read the Data

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