Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily through a 33-kilometer chokepoint between Iran and Oman. For Pakistan, 70%–80% of crude imports and a significant portion of LNG transit this corridor. That is not opinion. That is energy arithmetic.
But the real risk is not naval mines or missile strikes. It is insurance.
War-risk premiums spike before missiles land. Baseline war-risk insurance sits around 0.25% of hull value. A $100 million tanker equals $250,000 per voyage. In escalation phases, that number can approach $1 million per transit. When underwriters hesitate, shipping halts without a single shot fired.
Aircraft carriers cannot compel an insurer to rewrite a policy.
This is the transmission channel global investors misunderstand.
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