Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily through a 33-kilometer chokepoint between Iran and Oman. For Pakistan, 70%–80% of crude imports and a significant portion of LNG transit this corridor. That is not opinion. That is energy arithmetic.
But the real risk is not naval mines or missile strikes. It is insurance.
War-risk premiums spike before missiles land. Baseline war-risk insurance sits around 0.25% of hull value. A $100 million tanker equals $250,000 per voyage. In escalation phases, that number can approach $1 million per transit. When underwriters hesitate, shipping halts without a single shot fired.
Aircraft carriers cannot compel an insurer to rewrite a policy.
This is the transmission channel global investors misunderstand.
What Happens If Oil Spikes to $100–$120?
Pakistan’s 2024–25 energy import bill is approximately $12.7 billion. If Brent sustains $100–$120:
| Scenario | Additional Annual Cost | Monthly Impact |
|---|---|---|
| +10% Oil | <$2 billion | ~$150 million |
| $100–120 Range | Trade deficit widens materially | FX pressure |
This is uncomfortable. It is not existential.
Pakistan today enters this episode with:
• Positive real interest rates (~4%)
• IMF program discipline
• Lower import compression compared to past crises
• Remittance inflows near $2–3 billion monthly
The narrative that “Pakistan collapses immediately” is emotional, not analytical.
