What Happens If Oil Spikes to $100–$120?
Pakistan’s 2024–25 energy import bill is approximately $12.7 billion. If Brent sustains $100–$120:
| Scenario | Additional Annual Cost | Monthly Impact |
|---|---|---|
| +10% Oil | <$2 billion | ~$150 million |
| $100–120 Range | Trade deficit widens materially | FX pressure |
This is uncomfortable. It is not existential.
Pakistan today enters this episode with:
• Positive real interest rates (~4%)
• IMF program discipline
• Lower import compression compared to past crises
• Remittance inflows near $2–3 billion monthly
The narrative that “Pakistan collapses immediately” is emotional, not analytical.
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