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Oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz amid rising geopolitical tensions and insurance risk.

Energy & Environment

The Strait of Hormuz Is Not Closed. It Is Becoming Uninsurable.

If the Strait of Hormuz becomes uninsurable, Pakistan’s oil bill, inflation and remittances face pressure. Here’s the real risk and rational response.


Global Context Matters

Goldman Sachs has modeled Brent at $110 in escalation scenarios. JP Morgan projects $120–130 under sustained closure dynamics.

Yet structural supply forecasts toward 2027 show surplus potential. A prolonged spike requires prolonged escalation. Historically, Middle East oil shocks tend to mean-revert once risk premium fades.

This is volatility, not yet structural breakdown.

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