-
Engro Fertilizers
-
Fauji Fertilizer Company
-
Fatima Fertilizer
The Real Earnings Driver: Gas Economics
For fertilizer companies:
-
Feed gas cost determines margins
-
Gas availability determines plant utilization
-
Policy determines pricing flexibility
This is why news about gas allocation often sounds dramatic—but does not always translate into EPS surprises.
You correctly observed this in recent Engro disclosures:
A shift from “as-available” to firm gas supply improves operational certainty, not necessarily earnings, especially if pricing was already at wellhead parity.
Why Fertilizer Recovers Faster Than Other Sectors
-
Inventory cycles are short
-
Pricing discounts can be rolled back quickly
-
Policy prioritizes food security
This makes fertilizer a policy-protected cash flow sector, not a growth story.
Why PSX Fertilizer ≠ Global Fertilizer
Global fertilizer companies behave like exporters:
-
Earnings swing with global urea prices
-
Demand is linked to international trade flows
Pakistan’s fertilizer sector is different:
-
Domestic demand is inelastic
-
Pricing is semi-administered
-
Gas input is politically sensitive
This is why comparing Engro or FFC to global peers leads to flawed conclusions. Their valuation reflects policy insulation, not global arbitrage.
