India, influence, and the mirror problem
Regional scrutiny is inevitable. But reducing Bangladesh’s politics to an India–Pakistan proxy fight misreads the moment. Bangladesh’s upheaval was homegrown, its youth movement effective, and its voters sovereign. External lecturing—whether from Delhi or elsewhere—only hardens Bangladeshi resolve.
Verdict: what are the chances?
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NCP outright win: Very low
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NCP relevance: High (urban seats, agenda-setting)
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NCP–Jamaat bloc: Potential kingmaker (10–20%)
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Likely government: BNP-led, with coalitions possible
The youth party won’t run Bangladesh in 2026—but it will reshape how Bangladesh is run afterward. That’s not childish. That’s politics.
Bottom line:
Bangladesh’s election is not a rerun of 1971, nor a proxy chessboard. It’s a referendum on governance after upheaval—where youth energy collides with organization, and alliances are judged by voters, not hashtags.
