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Predictable operating cash flows
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Dividend sustainability
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Policy visibility
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Balance-sheet strength
This does not mean equities stop performing. It means performance becomes selective, and broad-based rallies become rare.
The End of “Everything Goes Up”
Between 2023 and 2025, PSX experienced repeated episodes where:
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Cheap stocks rallied regardless of quality
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Cyclicals moved on sentiment
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Balance sheets were ignored
That phase relied heavily on liquidity and mean reversion.
In 2026, capital becomes more discriminating. Weak business models do not collapse immediately—they simply stop attracting incremental capital.
This is how markets silently transition from growth to preservation without dramatic headlines.
Sector Rotation Under Capital Preservation
Instead of chasing returns, capital rotates toward stress-absorbing sectors.
Banking: Cash Flow Over Growth
Banks remain central to PSX not because of rapid expansion, but because:
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High rates support net interest margins
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Balance sheets are visible
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Dividend capacity remains strong
However, banking stocks no longer represent pure upside plays. They function as capital anchors—absorbing volatility rather than amplifying it.
This distinction is crucial for expectations.
