As American Dollar governs today’s capitalist markets, every Pakistani Government should focus on how to reduce the worth of Dollars against the Pakistani rupee. Fluctuations in an open market are normal. The overall trend is for the rupee to gain against the dollar these days. The question is why has the Pakistani rupee been appreciating against the dollar in recent times?
When Dollar went down during the past couple of months, the cost of living still depended on PKR. The import bill did improve though. The real question a month ago was whether should the prices ever go down when the dollar loses its value against the rupee. If $ goes higher, even if you are earning more in numbers you have to pay more due to increased inflation.
Well for the first, US election uncertainty was the reason PKR gain some strength. The world knows the Pak economy is driving in the opposite direction if we compare it to other countries in the region. The lower and middle-class people in Pakistan are the worst sufferers of increasing inflation. Govt claims that the Sugar price is 80 PKR per KG while on the other hand there is 110 per KG in my home town. Besides, there is no sugar available in utility stores.
How did Bangladesh Takka become more Economically Stable?
The State Bank of Pakistan raised its benchmark interest rate to 12.25 percent in an attempt to curb rising inflation amid a weak rupee and an elevated fiscal deficit. And with the present finance bill, all the government on the behest of the IMF has done has pushed the economy towards further cash transactions and hindered formalizing the economy. The interest rate in Pakistan was at a record low of 5.75 percent in May of 2016. This is why businesses flourished in the last 4-5 years and investments were being done creating new opportunities for Pakistan.
An estimate of M0, M1, M2, and M3 Money in Pakistan
As a general rule of thumb every 7% increase in the inflation rate doubles the total amount of money in existence every 10 years. At 14% it would be 4x the original amount in 10 years. KIBOR went up from 5.75% (a record low in the history of Pakistan) in May 2016 to 12.25% as of today. More than double the increase in the last two years. The way I see it is that the Government is trying to incentivize people to hold their reserves in the banks or in bonds instead of in gold or other solid assets etc. On one hand, this is not good for the industrial sector and companies since their stocks will tank as people sell stocks and buy bonds, etc but on the other hand, the government wants to strengthen the rupee since the current inflation rate of 8.25% can still devalue the currency and lead to hyperinflation if not handled properly.
1 USD = 89.55 Bangladeshi Taka
1 USD ~ 198.87 Pakistani rupee
Why? Because we could not do three things the right way much as Bangladesh did:
1) Bangladesh got rid of the Army
For Bangladesh Takka to grow, the two biggest earners were textile and money sent back by the ex-pat workers. Even our countrymen set their Textiles in Bangladesh owing to law and order. The men in Saudia and the Middle East have been replaced by Bengalis with the same positive non-violent image they portrayed to the world. BD neither has any fertile political landscape nor do they face existential threats owing to their location. There was no interference/distraction etc by any other country and India looked after it in how the country is run. Bangladesh shares land borders with India and Myanmar only, former has successfully turned Bangladesh into its satellite state.
Bangladesh doesn’t have enemies but Pakistan has
The reality is they are an ally of Shining India and that’s what is boosting them. In our case, we are struck by terror. Pakistan has four neighbors, it is a conduit to western strategic interests in Asia (Iran, Afghanistan, India, China, and Russia). Both good and bad, this allows for the role of CPEC in motivating our economy. A lot of Pakistanis will be playing straw man on this. But this should not mean not having an army or if that it’s not important. Without our armed forces, we would be Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. At the same time, we’ve essentially been under military rule for most of our history. That’s why the money led as a coalition support firm during Musharraf’s regime is seen cited as a positive indicator of a dictatorial rule. Even now we have a puppet government controlled by the army.
It is normal to see Bangladesh grow. They didn’t “create” industries. Most of them are foreign investments. But it’s not a big deal when a country is fighting a war against terrorism and Actual terrorists, unlike the west. It is normal to see the economy suffer.
Bangladesh is an Autocratic Party State
Despite the current setup being autocratic, they have a stronghold on the institutions. The leading party in Bangladesh got rid of all opposition, media is not free at all, imports are very tight and only for essentials generally, and remitting money out is very very tightly controlled. According to HRW,
The main opponent Khalida Zia was sentenced to a decade in prison on corruption charges. She was twice elected as PM of Bangladesh. She is the wife of former military chief, dictator, and President General Ziaur Rahman who allegedly conspired to assassinate Sheikh Mujib and his entire family less than two daughters (one of them is incumbent PM). That meant putting the Army on the leash.
2) Bangladesh Constitutionally declared itself as a Secular State
I really fail to fathom how can this magic secularism really solve our problems. Bangladesh can go to hell for that, but they do have a non-confused position. The constitution of the people’s republic of Bangladesh, Article 2A “The State Religion” states:
3) Bangladesh Educated the Women of the Nation
Bangladesh leveraged/ exploited its Least Developed Nation status to get multiple benefits like access to textiles/ RMG sector and funding. The NGOs specially BRAC and others helped really educate women and get them into work, population control, and poverty alleviation. Women are becoming part of the gig economy. Following suit with Bangladeshi freelancers on Fiverr, Upwork, and where not.
Silver Lining Pakistani Rupee Vs. Bangladesh Takka
Secularism is nothing but a philosophical point of view. Secularism is as biased as any other political and philosophical point of view. The idea a lot of people have about secularism is that it provides freedom of existence to everyone equally which is a false assumption. if you read on about its history, you would clearly see that it’s all about assimilation and that is it. It won’t make our economy better. If that were the case, Qatar won’t be stable today. The only way to boost our economy would be to:
A) educate the masses, women, AND men;
B) make better and educated economic policies;
C) have a local alternative for imported goods in the meanwhile.
Corruption in Bangladesh is at all levels but not the magnitude, scale, and greed as is here. However, they openly exhibit patriotism to the state, and anybody who criticizes the establishment does not mean they are necessarily a traitor. You still have to get them to exchange endorsed on your passport and generally use travelers squelches etc. Their patriotism is unique. Theirs do not necessitate the role of the Army or praising the army alone. Have you not seen them crying after losing the Asia Cup in a final with Pakistan. I am very sure there are amazing capable people in Bangladesh who would do a better job than Haseena and Co but look at where Pakistan is with its dynastic rulers so we can’t really be the ones to judge. Let’s change it.
- France EU stop aid and preferential import from PAK and caliph Erdogen or SAUDI oil sheiks shrink Paki jobs
- IMF loan repayment comes and we have to pay more in terms of Pak rupees
- China’s loan is in dollars and the Pak army’s main interest is China’s arms
- Paki elite invest and have safe havens in Dubai UK and USA, not China
The Pakistani rupee was gaining over the past three and a half years. It was a long-overdue correction that the incompetent govt was keeping it stable by taking fat loans. And now it’s repayment time. Armchair economists can only go and purchase dollars at the current rate if they are feeling so bullish about the dollar against the rupee. But once they start buying it, definitely the PKR will fall down because of the demand-supply chicken-egg situation. PKR will be more stressed after February when your repayment starts as demand for dollars will be very high. Hilale Pakistan awardee Biden resuming donation is the only solution.
What were the factors responsible for declining foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan in 2020 before CORONA?
Pakistan received less FDI than even the Indian city of Delhi. The Government has not been up to the mark and its Finance Minister Mr. Asad Umar is wrongly frustrated over the results only he can deliver. The adviser to the PM on economic affairs, Mr. Abdul Razzaq Dawood is found to call Pakistan a failing state with all the limelight his Government tries to en-cash upon while begging in front of foreign investors.
What the hell? He is raising false flags. We think he should be sacked. Even JKT is found to have stated that we should seek an IMF loan; sooner no later. there is nobody but the IMF that is used to being the lender of the last resort -with the funds available for large loans to a country that needs dollars. No one else has experience or skill. No country can suddenly lend large amounts of money to another country – particularly without a project. China has figured out how to lend for projects.
But, no one has any experience to provide large amounts of cash to another country without any collateral. What good is collateral, anyhow? However, the Government, instead of negotiations with IMF, is found itself engaged in trivial matters such as change of name of BISP, auditing and inspecting human capital resources at PKLI instead of catching the real mafia culprits i.e. within.
1 Dollar in Pakistani Rupees
US dollar USD to Pakistani rupee PKR exchange rate history depicts, how many Pakistani ex-pats living in England would wish a victory for the same wretched Pakistan when there’s a cricket match against England. It truly is the question? For me it isn’t a tragedy -it’s rather an opportunity for the golden age of universalism. The friction we feel in every society and even within us is transitory. Pakistani Rupee to Dollar was strong soon after British India fell down. These are perspectives. We are living in the age of overlapping identities. Once it used to be a dream of every British civil servant to be appointed in India at the time of RAJ.
From 2000 to 2007, the dollar remarkably remained stable at Rs.60. After the change in Musharraf Govt, it moved to 80 by 2009 (an increase of 33%). Then it remained near that level till the 2013 election when it jumped to 100 (an increase of 25%). Then till 2017 it remained near 100 however by July 2018 (election date) it moved to 125 and then since last two years, it has averaged around 160 level. So expect another jump by 2023 near election time and then another afterward.
The actual logic behind this is simple, our debt is growing fast along with the current account deficit that is further reducing reserves. As long as our economy doesn’t perform better than the US or western countries, Rupee can’t stand at the same level.
The exchange rate is just a parity – a comparison of our economy versus the world. We will always lag behind them unless major reforms are done, which are unlikely. From 2007 to 2020, the rupee depreciated 7% on average every year against the dollar. So expect at least a 5% depreciation from today till the next 10 years. The exchange rate has depreciated in every Govt. The percentage drop is more or less the same as it is directly correlated to our foreign debt levels which have increased always. So regardless of the Govt, it’s all about how much debt is in the last year (election year) of a sitting Govt.
Pakistani Economy is Crumbling
It’s Corona, every single thing happening there in the US is because of Corona. But now USD definitely has to go up because of the vaccine. I am saying the same before celebrating its strength for a few weeks check how much strength the rupee lost during the previous 2 years. Meanwhile, Indian forex reserves are at an all-time high of 560 Billion vs Pakistan’s mere 12 Billion. Enough of cricketing analogies. Enough of throwing debris and nose-plucking on the past Governments. Now, it’s your turn. In 71 years, we have had 11K Billion PKR in loans whereas just in these 7 months, the current PTI government has taken 2500 Billion PKR for loan repayments and rupee devaluation adjustments.
There is an absolute uncertainty as the Government is found reluctant in giving a state’s policy on the economy to improve the Pakistani rupee to USD. In the past, as of today, our economy is struck by a war on terror and the Government is not moving an inch backward to cutting down on defense budgets. Fair enough. But it is the same name-tag reason now Pakistan is considered a safe haven for terrorists, how do we expect foreign direct investments in our country.
Pakistani Rupee vs Dollar
What is the exchange rate for the Pakistani rupee and why does it matter after all? The problem is this whenever the rupee gains by one Paisa, it is declared by drum beating. then when it loses by one rupee, the matter can’t be hidden. Otherwise, nobody would have noticed this. EU leaders made sanctions against Pakistan and Turkey. The Turkish lira is also at an all-time low. Both leaders need to apologize to the west and renew relationships. Acting violent towards European culture and abusing European leaders is just wrong. I hope the Pakistani economy gets better.
When a person migrates or adopts foreign nationality, it’s all about bettering one’s economic and career prospects and all the world is an oyster for a talented, capable and hardworking individual! I see no harm in it and it doesn’t make anyone ‘less’ patriotic in any sense. Pakistani Rupee symbol as it stands is well below Bangladeshi Takka. Shibli Faraz’s Statement about IMF brought a frenetic that people will not be able to buy Dollars instead of Rupees.
The dollar to Pakistani rupee rate today may be different but to my awareness, it should be 170 Rs. to 1$ should be the best correction. The only way PKR can improve value is by paying off the national debt, increasing foreign reserves, and increasing GDP. All others are just cosmetic measures.
Pakistan’s Economic Performance under IK in 4 graphs:
We could go for a list of indicators but for now, 4 will suffice:
1) GDP per capita: Even by Pakistan’s dismal economic standards, IK’s regime was truly exceptional: GDP per capita FELL after a very long time.
2) Unprecedented Inflation: ALL quintiles experienced RAPID inflation (including food inflation). Thus, with a falling GDP per capita (figure 1) and increasing prices, Pakistan essentially experienced a stagnating economy with rising prices: another historic achievement of IK.
3) Currency depreciation: The PKR plummeted and tanked to unbelievable levels.
4) Investments and Equities: Pakistani stock market indices have STILL not reached their levels in 2017. In short, the period was terrible for everyone: investors, workers, industrialists, and ordinary consumers.
Forget about the Industrialization of Pakistan
There is the implementation of unequivocal taxation governing the state. Also, in the name of austerity, we are hiking operations costs. In the name of increased exports, we have devalued and stooped so low that it is impossible to recover. God forbid never talk about petroleum prices. Many pundits have predicted the collapse of Pakistan’s economy (Pakistani Rupee to Dollar) over the last few years but Pakistan’s economy has displayed amazing resilience up till now. It is high time that the common people say: “I am done with you” to Mr. Imran Khan and give democracy a chance. This Govt can’t even provide free medicines now. The only recent relief came to the industrialists of Faisalabad in the Power Loom sector.
When Zia Ul Haq left, our total debt was $13 billion Then came PPP and PMLN. Debt increased to $39 Billion. Then came the Musharraf era. Although, debt only increased by $1.7 Billion to $ 40.60 Billion. During the Musharraf era, the aid given to Pakistan was 32 Billion Dollars. Musharraf devalued the Pakistani rupee to US Dollar only to leave people whimsical in his consumer economy bubble with the hire-purchase model.
Let’s just conveniently ignore all the easy debts and rescheduling that took place after 2001 which made Musharraf look like a messiah and put an extra burden on the next governments to further your propaganda! (The Paris Club offered $12 Billion in loans for 38 years. Under the arrangement Pakistan would have to pay nothing in debt servicing during the first 15 years.)
Not to forget, it was Musharraf who had left the country’s lest its resources on the war on terror for years and budgets to come meaning the exchange rate dollar to Pakistani rupee was 1 to 65 for not very long until its correction to around 100 soon after he left.
AND AGAIN. Then came PPP and PMLN. Debt increased to $96 Billion. Our problem with PTI is that it campaigned that they will implement new taxes on people but they will take money from the corrupt mafia. And the Govt. needs to improve its business strategy and earn something. Not lose extra bucks on Peshawar BRT. 2.3 Billion PKR per KM. Duh?
State Bank has released its yearly report on the economy of Pakistan. The figures confirm a continuing economic downturn. Our GDP growth went from5.5% in 2017/18 (PMLN’s past year) to 1.9% in 2018/19 and -0.4 % last year 2019/20. This coming year too the government expects GDP growth to be 2 percent and World Bank forecasts an anemic 1 percent. Given our population increase rate of 2.4 percent, in each one of the three years, PTI will create Pakistanis poor on average by 0.5percent (18/19), 2.8% (19/20), and 1.4% (20/21).
This isn’t a record we can be satisfied with the current situation of Pakistan’s economy. Inflation increased from 3.9% in 17/18 to 7.1percent in 18/19 and 10.2percent in 19/20 with metropolitan food inflation at 14.6 percent and rural food inflation at 16.4 percent. Given that less well-off individuals spend nearly all their earnings on food, that can be actually causing untold misery to inferior and lower-income families. Research indicates that our GDP should increase by 5 to 6% to offer employment to 1.5 million new people entering the labor force each year.
With the Pakistan economy 2019 growing at 2 or 1% or shrinking, we have created unemployment of about 2.5 million people and also have driven roughly 10 million people to abject poverty. What are the key factors which can play a vital role to improve the economy of Pakistan? One reason for the rampant growth in inflation is a fast increase in the money supply. State Bank forswore buying government treasury bills straight (hence creating money) but then bought over Rs 1200 billion worth of bonds out of the commercial bank (consequently earning money). The 17% increase in money supply last year and enormous increases in the purchase price of utilities, also have led to large inflation. The buying of bonds was perhaps necessary so as to help banks satisfy the voracious appetite of the authorities for debt.
The deficit retained increasing fast, from 6.5 percent in 17/18 to about 9.1percent in 18/19 and 8.1percent in 19/20 (along with the deficit was 8.1percent instead of even higher because the government let circular debt increase at record levels). The record-high deficits in PTI’s two years led to the largest increase in public debt ever seen. The authorities increased gross debt by 11,444 billion in just two years (compared to Rs10,661 billion in PMLN in 5 years). Our debt to GDP has gone from 72% to 87% in two decades. Similarly, total external debt & liabilities to GDP has also increased from 33.4% in June ’18 to 45.5% in June ’20. Our entire debt and external debt ratios are now increasing at a dangerous clip. The government has also failed to increase tax collection.
Against the previous year’s goal of Rs 5555 billion, it only increased by Rs 3950 billion, although covid hindered in the group of Rs 300 to Rs400 billion. This year the goal is 4950 billion but again the trend seems to suggest Rs 4300 billion sprinkled with a miniature budget. Given the enormous devaluation, this government’s revenue collection was abysmal. In the first quarter of the past year, our budget deficit was 0.4percent of GDP. This fiscal year (20/21) can it be 1.1% of GDP so I fear we might end up with another year of more than 8 or 9% of GDP budget deficit. This enormous shortage (or dissaving) cannot be helpful for capital formation or investment. Our exports in 17/18 were $24.75 billion. They fell in PTI’s first season by $500 million despite enormous devaluation and last year decreased (in part because of Covid) by yet an additional $1.8 billion.
In the first quarter of this year, they’re below last year’s level. So PTI has not been in a position to boost export even after the 40% devaluation. Our imports have been curtailed because of devaluation, a historic decrease in world oil prices, a slowing down of Pakistan’s economy, and gains of custom duties. The precipitous decline in imports has changed into our existing account to an excess. Plus happily, during the previous five weeks, our remittances have also considerably increased. This is expected to continue at least till covid-related travel limitations wane.
What are the key factors which can play a vital role to improve the economy of Pakistan?
The national debt of the last 70 years, if say USD100 has increased to USD151/160 in the last three and half years and had rapidly increased. Hafeez Sheikh said he saw bright economic indicators from four corners he needs to have his eyes checked and all the two main crops wheat and cotton are on a sharp downward spiral. Combined with Shaukat Tareen they will bring the Pakistan economy to a grinding halt and then will drumbeat that they have reduced the C/A deficit.
This current account surplus is forecast to become a deficit once the market picks up and imports rise. This will further pressure our foreign exchange reserves. Our reserves right now are around $12 billion, of which $4.9 billion are due to short-term swaps, as well as another $7 billion is currently in dollar deposits from friendly countries. This is quite a precarious position and demands that we restart our IMF program The IMF is rumored to be requesting two things: a reduction in the huge and burgeoning budget deficit and also power-sector curved debt.
To reduce the deficit, authorities should take action to reduce expenditures and raise earnings without presenting new taxes. It also needs to attempt to decrease circular debt by collecting more invoices (now at 87% vs 93% below PMLN) and decreasing T&D losses (now at 19 percent versus 18 percent below PMLN). It shouldn’t take the easy way of increasing taxes and power tariffs. This will truly set the market in a tailspin. The people of Pakistan are still paying for the imprudent policies of PTI, such as accelerated devaluation, enormous increases in gas and power tariffs, excess increase in rates of interest, crony capitalism (glucose, wheat, medicine, etc), and general incompetence.
Is the Pakistani rupee rate ever going to improve?
There’s a kind of transcendental unity of cultures, creeds, and religions according to Frithjof Schuon, Sadhguru, and so many contemporary intellectual giants. Dollar vs Pakistani rupee, especially if you see how much the foreign remittances contribute towards our national exchequer and improve USD to Pakistani rupee conversions for Pakistan. And if you have an exceptional talent then you are in demand everywhere. Even our great Prophet SAW has told us to ‘migrate’ to improve our economic prospects if we are hard-pressed financially. And then it’s not only the Pakistanis who have moved out. Lots of British, western, US citizens, etc migrate to other lands for jobs, studies and social work, etc! We all need to accept that this world which we all share as a planet is a single country and all of it is God’s Kingdom and we all are its global citizens!
PAKISTANI RUPEE TO USD
The economy is going down the drain when considering 1 Dollar to 1 Pakistani Rupee. The economy is going bust. The IMF Loan seemed inevitable. But why is the Government delaying seeking the loan with its huge promises yet to be re-discovered, re-planned, and may be executed sometime? Especially with an under 3% growth in comparison to 5.8% as left by their successors, we are losing jobs if anything but creating new ones. This reported growth too is at the behest of the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) and usual aids/soft loans from Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. Do you think that Saudi Arabia can save Pakistan in the current economic crisis? No. They are already diversifying their investments in India. Some foreign direct investments (FDI) came in the pretense of CPEC in Pakistan including Arcelik (Turkey) buying Dawlance and FrieslandCampina (Netherlands) buying Engro Corporation. But this is exactly one of the major business problems faced by Pakistani Startups in 2022 as no foreign direct investments are coming to them.