These stats reveal India’s edge in batting depth (four players over 149 runs) and bowling variety, while Pakistan relies on Minhas’ consistency and Subhan’s fire to disrupt.
Plausibility of an Upset: Can Pakistan Topple the Giants?
India enters as clear favorites—around 60-65% win probability—bolstered by their group-stage romp over Pakistan and superior net run rate (+4.5 vs +2.1). Mhatre’s side has lost just 12 wickets across five games, with openers Suryavanshi and Mhatre averaging 120+ partnerships. If they bat first and post 280+, Pakistan’s shaky middle order (combined avg 22) could crumble again.
Yet, Pakistan’s plausibility isn’t negligible at 35-40%. Their semi-final script—bowling out a strong Bangladesh cheaply—mirrors what Subhan and Raza could do on a gripping Dubai pitch. Minhas (299 runs) has been a rock, and if Hussain’s leg-spin (2+ wkts potential) clicks, they could defend 220-240.
