6) Cement & Cyclicals: The Rate Casualties
Cement is the classic rate victim:
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Capex-heavy
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Debt-funded expansion
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Demand tied to construction finance
Even strong dispatch numbers struggle when rates choke project economics. The sector needs easing to work sustainably.
7) Dividends vs Growth: Rates Decide the Winner
When rates are high:
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Dividends are priced like bonds → favored.
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Growth is penalized → discounted.
When rates fall:
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Growth re-rates first.
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Dividend yield loses relative appeal.
Practical lens
Don’t debate “dividend vs growth” in isolation. Ask: Where are rates headed?
8) Historical Pattern on PSX (What Repeats)
| Rate Phase | Market Behavior | Winning Style |
|---|---|---|
| Tightening | Multiple compression | Banks, defensives |
| Peak plateau | Selective rotation | Cash-flow quality |
| Easing | Re-rating | Cyclicals, growth |
| Normalization | Earnings matter | Broad market |
PSX has repeatedly respected this sequence.
9) Why Earnings Surprise Still Fails at High Rates
Investors often ask: “Why didn’t the stock move? Earnings beat.”
Answer: the discount rate didn’t cooperate.
At high rates:
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Incremental earnings are discounted heavily.
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Cash today beats promise tomorrow.
This is why cash-flow stability outperforms headline EPS growth late in tight cycles.
