This intersects with Pakistan’s cost-push inflation trajectory. The inflation-policy chart (PBS, SBP, World Bank data) shows:
- Inflation peaked at 38% in May 2023.
- Policy rate peaked at 22%.
- Clear correlation with global commodity price spikes.
The inflationary spiral was not purely demand-driven. It was commodity and exchange-rate amplified. That context matters when evaluating interest-rate drag on industrial expansion.
3. Textile Sector Contraction Signals
Reports referencing APTMA leadership indicate:
- 144 textile mills closed since July 2024
- Concentration in Punjab and Sindh
- 800–1,000 workers affected per mill
- ~30% reduction in yarn capacity in certain segments
Even adjusting for exaggeration risk in public debate, closures at this scale suggest systemic strain, not isolated inefficiency.
Textiles comprise roughly 60% of Pakistan’s $30 billion export base, making sectoral instability macro-relevant.
4. The Bangladesh Comparison — Oversimplified or Instructive?
Bangladesh exports $45+ billion in garments, despite limited upstream textile depth. Pakistan, with a vertically integrated fiber-to-finished value chain, remains below $20 billion in textile exports.
Two interpretations emerge:
Industry View:
Bangladesh’s model is less energy-intensive upstream. Gross export comparisons ignore imported input costs (fabric imports exceeding $20 billion annually). Pakistan’s deeper chain structurally increases energy intensity.
Critical View:
Bangladesh invested heavily in:
- Workforce training (particularly female participation)
- Lean manufacturing
- Buyer compliance systems
- Global brand integration
- Export clustering
Energy costs alone do not explain a 2x export gap.
