This current account surplus is forecast to become a deficit once the market picks up and imports rise. This will further pressure our foreign exchange reserves. Our reserves right now are around $12 billion, of which $4.9 billion are due to short-term swaps, as well as another $7 billion is currently in dollar deposits from friendly countries. This is quite a precarious position and demands that we restart our IMF program The IMF is rumored to be requesting two things: a reduction in the huge and burgeoning budget deficit and also power-sector curved debt.
To reduce the deficit, authorities should take action to reduce expenditures and raise earnings without presenting new taxes. It also needs to attempt to decrease circular debt by collecting more invoices (now at 87% vs 93% below PMLN) and decreasing T&D losses (now at 19 percent versus 18 percent below PMLN). It shouldn’t take the easy way of increasing taxes and power tariffs. This will truly set the market in a tailspin. The people of Pakistan are still paying for the imprudent policies of PTI, such as accelerated devaluation, enormous increases in gas and power tariffs, excess increase in rates of interest, crony capitalism (glucose, wheat, medicine, etc), and general incompetence.
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