6️⃣ Macro Overlay: Trade Deficit Still Matters
From PBS / Arif Habib data you shared:
📉 Cumulative 1HFY26 Trade Deficit
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USD 19.2bn
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+34.6% YoY
Exports remain structurally weak.
Imports are sticky.
This keeps:
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FX risk alive
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Rate cuts cautious
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Valuation expansion capped
Markets know this — and price accordingly.
7️⃣ Capital Cycle Insight (2026 Is Different)
The quote you shared from StockCompounder matters more than any ratio:
“Shift from aggressive growth to capital preservation.”
This is the phase PSX is entering.
In such phases:
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Multiples stay compressed
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Dividends matter more than growth
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Cash flow > narratives
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Stock selection > index bets
8️⃣ What Would Actually Expand PSX Multiples?
Multiples won’t rise because:
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Someone calls PSX “cheap”
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Earnings beat estimates
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Social media optimism spikes
They expand when:
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Trade balance stabilizes
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Rates clearly trend lower
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FX volatility compresses
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Foreign capital re-enters
Until then, 9–10x is equilibrium, not opportunity.
9️⃣ How Smart Investors Use This Information
Instead of asking:
“Is PSX cheap?”
Ask:
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Which sectors can grow without multiple expansion?
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Which companies generate real cash flow?
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Which dividends are sustainable under stress?
This is how professionals invest in range-bound markets.
