🔍 Key Observation
-
PSX traded ABOVE current multiples ~48% of the time
-
PSX traded BELOW current multiples ~52% of the time
That means today’s valuation is not an extreme.
It’s statistically normal.
📊 Approximate Historical Distribution (Simplified Table)
| P/E Band | Days Spent | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| < 6x | Very Rare | Crisis / breakdown |
| 6–8x | Low | Stress environments |
| 9–10x | High | Neutral / transition zone |
| 11–12x | High | Growth + stability |
| 13–15x | Moderate | Optimism cycles |
| >16x | Very Rare | Liquidity excess |
Important:
PSX spends most of its life between 8x–12x, not at extremes.
3️⃣ Cheap vs Deserved: The Missing Variable (Risk)
Markets do not price earnings — they price risk-adjusted earnings.
At the moment, PSX faces:
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