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Ports
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Sea lanes (Bab al-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden)
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Proxy leverage
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Fragmentation over unity
This divergence is now irreconcilable.
A unified Yemen stabilizes Saudi Arabia.
A fragmented Yemen advantages the UAE’s port-centric, Israel-aligned maritime strategy.
These are not compatible end states.
Why Mukalla Was the Point of No Return
Mukalla is not just a port.
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It sits in Hadramout, nearly one-third of Yemen’s landmass
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It is adjacent to Saudi Arabia’s eastern security flank
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It lies outside the UAE’s historical counterterrorism justification zone
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It connects to oil routes and tribal alliances Saudi Arabia has invested in
By striking Mukalla, Riyadh signaled:
“This is not about influence. This is about intrusion.”
For Saudi Arabia, UAE-backed weapons flows there cross from diplomacy into threat.
The Israel Factor No One Wants to Say Out Loud
The timing is not accidental.
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UAE’s deepening security alignment with Israel
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Speculation over Israeli air and naval access via Emirati bases
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Claims (unverified but circulating widely) that UAE encouraged Houthi strikes on NEOM
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Regional fears that Iran–Israel escalation could drag Gulf states into direct fire
From Riyadh’s perspective:
