This is not hostility toward industry. It is strategic interrogation.
6. Currency Depreciation and Elasticity
The rupee moved from ~100 per USD to ~300 per USD over a decade. If exchange rate competitiveness alone determined export acceleration, export volume would have tripled proportionately. It did not.
That indicates structural rigidity beyond currency.
7. Trade Diplomacy & Tariff Positioning
Recent reporting indicates:
- U.S. tariffs on Bangladesh textiles: reduced to 19% (with zero-duty categories conditional)
- India: ~18%
- Pakistan: ~19%
Market perception, compliance credibility, logistics efficiency, and diplomatic leverage influence buyer preference beyond tariff points alone.
Tariff parity does not guarantee competitive parity.
8. Governance & Institutional Capacity
The constitutional excerpts on local government and governance reform indirectly point to execution capability. Export transformation requires:
- Fiscal discipline
- SOE restructuring
- Energy market rationalization
- Refund automation
- Provincial alignment with export strategy
Policy consistency is capital.
Credibility reduces risk premium.
Without it, even innovative firms struggle to scale.
9. The IPP Debate & Structural Economics
The IPP capacity payment model, particularly take-or-pay contracts indexed to USD returns, contributes to PKR burden under FX volatility. The debate requires technical audit, not populist labeling.
