3) Israel’s advantage is structural
Israel’s capability edge isn’t “one purchase.”
It’s decades of integration, upgrades, operational tempo, and tech depth.
So yes, MiG-29 arrivals can improve Iran’s local confidence and deterrence optics.
But it doesn’t flip the equation.
Pakistan’s Position: The Quiet Risk Nobody Prices In
Here’s the part global analysts often skip:
Pakistan sits near the fault-line of escalation.
Not because Pakistan wants to fight Israel or Iran.
But because Pakistan shares a long border with Iran, faces Baloch insurgency pressures, and can’t afford instability spilling across.
That’s why Pakistan often sounds like it’s advocating restraint.
It’s not weakness.
It’s cost accounting.
Pakistan knows what cross-border militancy looks like when it gets oxygen.
And Pakistan also knows a war next door doesn’t stay next door.
The Oil Signal: The Market Is Voting In Real Time
When tensions rise, oil spikes.
When restraint appears, oil drops.
That’s not morality. That’s shipping lanes, risk premiums, and insurance costs.
Your WTI dip is basically the world saying:
“We don’t believe the next 48 hours are a straight line into war.”
And that’s why this story matters for everyone — not just geopolitics nerds:
