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The technology is technically possible. The unresolved questions concern its cost, deployment speed, energy supply and ability to deliver durable, independently verified removal at enormous scale.
The International Energy Agency has identified atmospheric carbon dioxide’s low concentration as a fundamental reason direct air capture requires more energy and generally costs more than capturing concentrated emissions from industrial facilities. Its published estimates vary substantially according to technology, plant configuration and development stage.
Importantly, carbon capture and carbon removal are not synonymous.
Capturing emissions from a cement factory before they enter the atmosphere may reduce that factory’s emissions. Removing carbon dioxide that is already dispersed throughout the atmosphere is a different undertaking. Furthermore, using captured carbon to manufacture a product does not automatically guarantee permanent storage.
These distinctions become particularly important when companies advertise carbon neutrality through purchased credits.
The Scale of the Carbon Removal Challenge
The second edition of The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, published in 2024, provides a useful quantitative foundation.
Researchers estimated that approximately two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide were being removed annually through reported conventional removal activities, principally land-management and forestry practices.
By comparison, novel removal approaches collectively accounted for approximately 1.3 million tonnes annually.
The report estimated that pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement could require approximately seven to nine billion tonnes of annual carbon removal by mid-century. These are scenario-dependent requirements, not a fixed engineering specification.
| Carbon removal category | Annual quantity reported in the 2024 assessment | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Conventional carbon removal | Approximately 2 billion tonnes of CO₂ | Predominantly forestry and land-management activities |
| Novel carbon removal | Approximately 1.3 million tonnes of CO₂ | Includes multiple emerging technologies, not direct air capture alone |
| Mid-century removal in assessed Paris-consistent pathways | Approximately 7–9 billion tonnes of CO₂ | Depends on the emissions pathway and sustainability assumptions |
Source: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, second edition, 2024. Conventional removal estimates should not be confused with the total carbon absorbed naturally by the world’s unmanaged forests, vegetation and oceans.
These figures reveal the magnitude of the engineering challenge.
Even substantial percentage growth in emerging carbon-removal technologies would initially represent a relatively small absolute contribution. Industrial expansion would require investment in manufacturing, electricity generation, heat supply, transportation infrastructure, geological storage, measurement systems and long-term monitoring.
This is precisely why reducing emissions now remains so important: every tonne that never enters the atmosphere is one fewer tonne potentially requiring expensive removal later.
The Energy Paradox: Cleaning the Atmosphere Requires Additional Clean Electricity
Direct air capture introduces a particularly important question for countries already struggling to finance their electricity transitions.
Where will the energy come from?
Industrial carbon-removal facilities require electricity, heat or both. Their actual requirements depend on the technology employed, local environmental conditions, system design and available energy infrastructure.
A carbon-removal project powered by emissions-intensive electricity could significantly undermine its own environmental benefits.
Conversely, supplying such facilities with additional low-carbon electricity could make their operation more environmentally effective, provided the full lifecycle emissions of the project are accounted for.
However, additional renewable generation comes with an opportunity cost.
If a developing country has limited capital and electricity infrastructure, it must evaluate whether its next renewable-energy investment would deliver greater near-term benefits by displacing fossil-fuel generation, improving grid reliability, electrifying industry or supplying an industrial carbon-removal facility.
