PIA’s Own Turnaround Trend
-
FY23 loss: Rs 26 billion
-
FY24 loss: Rs 15 billion
-
42% improvement year-on-year
PIA is still bleeding—but it’s bleeding less, after:
-
Debt restructuring
-
Route normalization
-
Cost discipline
-
Reduced political interference
Privatization isn’t the starting point. It’s the next step.
“But No Private Airline Ever Succeeded in Pakistan”
True—and incomplete.
Failed carriers include:
Shaheen Air, Bhoja, Air Indus, Hajvairy, Aero Asia, Serene
Why they failed:
-
Aviation treated as a luxury by FBR
-
Excessive outbound taxes
-
No economies of scale
-
Weak capital buffers
-
Fuel and FX shocks
-
No policy consistency
Why PIA is different:
-
Existing international slots
-
Heathrow legacy access
-
Large diaspora demand
-
Scale no startup ever had
-
Sovereign route leverage
This is not a greenfield airline. It’s a distressed asset with infrastructure.
The Uncomfortable Truth: Workforce & CASK
PIA cannot survive with its current cost base.
-
CASK (Cost per Available Seat Kilometer) is uncompetitive
-
Overstaffing is real (500 to 1 aircraft whereas international average is 16 staff one aircraft)
-
Unions will resist
-
Layoffs are likely—but not overnight
The state failed PIA by avoiding hard decisions for decades. Privatization merely forces reality to surface.
Will Tickets Become More Expensive?
Short term: Yes, possibly
Long term: Not necessarily
