What Was Different This Time?
Three macro overlays:
1. Current Account Surplus
January recorded a $121m surplus.
That stabilizes FX expectations.
But it also implies tight import compression — which reduces speculative liquidity.
2. IMF Discipline
Markets know fiscal tightening drains excess liquidity.
When governments “pump,” markets inflate.
When IMF conditions tighten, markets consolidate.
3. Rate Cut Expectations Moderated
A March rate cut looks unlikely.
When rate-cut momentum stalls, banks lose short-term narrative strength.
That’s repricing.
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