Are We in a Slow-Motion Crash?
No.
We are in a post-rerating digestion phase.
The index ran ahead of earnings.
Liquidity peaked.
Expectations got ahead of fundamentals.
Now:
• Earnings matter
• Margins matter
• Cost of capital matters
Markets are arguing with themselves.
That is healthy.
The Psychological Trap
Most investors measure performance weekly.
Markets reward multi-year positioning.
Historical data shows:
Short-term noise dominates 1–3 months.
Business fundamentals dominate 3–5 years.
If you cannot tolerate a 15% decline,
equities are the wrong asset class.
What Matters Now
Instead of predicting green candles:
Ask:
• Which balance sheets survive tight liquidity?
• Which sectors benefit from CA stability?
• Which companies maintain cash flow in high-rate environments?
• Where is policy insulation strongest?
That’s real analysis.
Final Thought
The music hasn’t stopped.
It changed tempo.
Markets move from:
Rerating → Rotation → Earnings → Consolidation → Expansion.
We just transitioned phases.
Fast 10% declines have historically been accumulation zones.
That doesn’t guarantee tomorrow.
It informs probability.
Zoom out.
Volatility is not failure.
It’s the entry cost for long-term returns.
