For Pakistan to have a chance:
- They need to win all their remaining games (although it seems unlikely).
- Australia must lose at least two out of their next five games (which is possible as England and NZ can defeat them).
- Afghanistan needs to lose at least one more game (which is possible against SA or AUS).
Keep in mind that these conditions would result in a higher chance of an upset:
Conditions for Pakistan to Qualify:
| Conditions | Yes/No |
|---|---|
| Pakistan Wins All Matches | Yes |
| Australia Loses to NZ | Yes |
| Australia Loses to Eng | Yes |
| SA Loses to NZ | Yes |
| SA Loses to India | Yes |
| NZ Loses to Aus | Yes |
| NZ Loses to SA | Yes |
| NZ Loses to One Other | Yes |
| India Loses All Matches | Yes |
| Chances of Upset | Higher Chance |
Australia have played one match less than Pakistan, yet their points are equal. Pakistan’s objective is to catch up with Australia. It’s anticipated that New Zealand will secure a victory against Australia. Therefore, Pakistan must focus on winning their remaining four matches with good run rates. Based on the upcoming matches, Pakistan will face the following teams:
- South Africa in Chennai.
- Bangladesh in Kolkata.
- New Zealand in Bengaluru.
- England in Kolkata.
India is almost guaranteed a spot in the semifinals. Apart from India, nothing is confirmed yet. All other positions are still up for grabs, but for Pakistan to have a chance, they must win all their remaining matches.
Pakistan always seems to follow this pattern for qualification! They face struggles, they face setbacks, and then somehow they manage to qualify! Luck always seems to come their way at the last moment! If Pakistan wins all their remaining matches and Australia loses any two of their remaining matches, Pakistan has a chance. However, if Australia loses only one match in the remaining fixtures, the decision will come down to the Net Run Rate (NRR).
And truth be told, it wasn’t all that difficult. Two more teams have experienced upsets! The No. 4 slot is still up for grabs! Out of the four remaining matches, three are against South Africa, New Zealand, and England. Pakistan needs to win at least two out of these three, and also secure a victory against Bangladesh, considering the Net Run Rate (NRR) in all matches. If there are two more defeats, it will dash all hopes. Currently, the chances are less than 10%.
