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4️⃣ What Empirical Research Shows (Not Opinions)
Your supplied studies reveal a dual reality:
Negative Findings (1997–2017)
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GARCH-based models show statistically significant negative effects
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Investors priced in:
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Tax hikes
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Spending cuts
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Growth suppression
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Positive Findings (2015–2022)
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Strong announcement-driven rallies
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Confidence effects dominated fundamentals
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Outcomes depended on:
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Political stability
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Global liquidity
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Implementation credibility
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Macro Cost
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Average GDP growth reduced by ~1–2 percentage points
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Industrial growth reduced by ~2.3 points
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Equity impact came indirectly via slower activity
👉 This confirms IMF programs stabilize markets, not expand them.
Share the post “How IMF Programs Historically Impact the Pakistan Stock Exchange”
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