[Pakistani Rupee To USD] How High Will Pakistani Rupee Appreciate In Exchange With US Dollars?

This isn’t a record we can be satisfied with the current situation of Pakistan’s economy. Inflation increased from 3.9% in 17/18 to 7.1percent in 18/19 and 10.2percent in 19/20 with metropolitan food inflation at 14.6 percent and rural food inflation at 16.4 percent. Given that less well-off individuals spend nearly all their earnings on food, that can be actually causing untold misery to inferior and lower-income families. Research indicates that our GDP should increase by 5 to 6% to offer employment to 1.5 million new people entering the labor force each year.

With the Pakistan economy 2019 growing at 2 or 1% or shrinking, we have created unemployment of about 2.5 million people and also have driven roughly 10 million people to abject poverty. What are the key factors which can play a vital role to improve the economy of Pakistan? One reason for the rampant growth in inflation is a fast increase in the money supply. State Bank forswore buying government treasury bills straight (hence creating money) but then bought over Rs 1200 billion worth of bonds out of the commercial bank (consequently earning money). The 17% increase in money supply last year and enormous increases in the purchase price of utilities, also have led to large inflation. The buying of bonds was perhaps necessary so as to help banks satisfy the voracious appetite of the authorities for debt.

The deficit retained increasing fast, from 6.5 percent in 17/18 to about 9.1percent in 18/19 and 8.1percent in 19/20 (along with the deficit was 8.1percent instead of even higher because the government let circular debt increase at record levels). The record-high deficits in PTI’s two years led to the largest increase in public debt ever seen. The authorities increased gross debt by 11,444 billion in just two years (compared to Rs10,661 billion in PMLN in 5 years). Our debt to GDP has gone from 72% to 87% in two decades. Similarly, total external debt & liabilities to GDP has also increased from 33.4% in June ’18 to 45.5% in June ’20. Our entire debt and external debt ratios are now increasing at a dangerous clip. The government has also failed to increase tax collection.

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