The Bottom Line
PIA wasn’t destroyed overnight.
It was slowly suffocated by indecision.
Privatization is not ideological purity.
It is damage control.
In the context of the PIA privatization auction on December 23, 2025, the bidding process was structured around a reserve/reference price (set at approximately Rs 100-115 billion for the 75% stake), with the following key scenarios based on how the sealed bids compared to it:
- No bids meet or exceed the reserve price: The process would fail, similar to the 2024 round (no new bidding round).
- Only one bid meets or exceeds the reserve price: That bidder (the highest if multiple but only one qualifies) would be declared the winner immediately, without further auction.
- One or more bids below the reserve, but highest is invited to match: The top bidder gets a chance to revise upward to meet the reserve price for acceptance.
- Multiple bids (two or more) meet or exceed the reserve price: An immediate open/live auction phase is triggered among the qualifying bidders to drive the price higher (this is what occurred, as Arif Habib at Rs 115bn and Lucky at Rs 101.5bn both exceeded the ~Rs 100bn reference, while Airblue’s Rs 26bn did not qualify).
- Post-selection for the remaining 25% stake: The winner has an optional window (typically 90-120 days, extendable to 1 year) to acquire the government’s retained 25% at a potential premium (e.g., 12-15%), often against collateral/security — this deferred structure protects government interests by allowing assessment time while ensuring revival funds stay mostly (92.5%) in PIA.
These rules ensured transparency (televised process) and maximized value, while the high reinvestment ratio (92.5% of proceeds back into PIA) and additional ~Rs 80bn modernization commitment safeguarded the airline’s turnaround over revenue extraction. In the actual event, scenario 4 played out, advancing to open bidding between the two qualified consortia.
