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What are the chances of Pakistan beating India in ACC Men’s U19 Asia Cup 2025 Final

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Dubai, December 21, 2025 – As the sun sets over the ICC Academy Oval in Dubai, the stage is set for one of cricket’s most electrifying showdowns: India U19 versus Pakistan U19 in the final of the ACC Men’s U19 Asia Cup 2025. This isn’t just a match for continental supremacy—it’s a rematch fueled by national pride, with India seeking a record-extending 12th title and Pakistan hungry to reclaim glory after a humiliating group-stage defeat. The two sides clashed earlier in the tournament, where India posted 240 and skittled Pakistan for 150, but the Green Shirts have since roared back with a dominant semi-final win over Bangladesh. With the trophy on the line, plausibility tilts toward India, but in Indo-Pak cricket, anything can happen.

Latest Updates on the Finalists: Teams and TacticsBoth squads arrived unbeaten in the knockouts, showcasing depth and resilience. India, under the steady leadership of Ayush Mhatre, has been a batting juggernaut, racking up two 400-plus totals in the group stage and chasing down targets with ease. Their semi-final demolition of Sri Lanka by 8 wickets highlighted a balanced attack, blending explosive openers with a lethal spin duo. Pakistan, captained by the composed Farhan Yousaf, leaned on their pace battery to defend a modest total against Bangladesh in the semis, winning by 8 wickets after bowling the Tigers out for 121.

However, batting inconsistencies remain a concern, especially after collapsing against India’s bowlers earlier.

Probable Playing XI India U19 (Batting-heavy with spin options):

Ayush Mhatre (c), Vaibhav Suryavanshi, Vihaan Malhotra, Vedant Trivedi, Abhigyan Kundu (wk), Aaron George, Kanishk Chouhan, Deepesh Devendran, Yuvraj Gohil, Khilan A. Patel, Anmoljeet Singh.

(Spin duo of Chouhan and Patel to exploit Dubai’s turning track; Devendran leads the seam attack.)

Pakistan U19 (Pace-dominated bowling, aggressive top order):

Farhan Yousaf (c), Usman Khan (vc), Abdul Subhan, Sameer Minhas, Mohammad Sayyam, Ali Raza, Niqab Shafiq, Ahmed Hussain, Hamza Zahoor (wk), Mohammad Shayan (wk), Ali Hasan Baloch.
(Subhan and Raza form a fiery new-ball pair; Minhas provides all-round stability.)

Pitch report: The Dubai surface favors batsmen early but assists spinners later, with an average first-innings score of 250. Teams winning the toss may bat first to set a platform.

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Team Form: India’s Dominance Meets Pakistan’s Resilience

India entered the tournament as favorites and lived up to the billing, topping Group A with wins over UAE (by 10 wickets), Pakistan (90 runs), and Malaysia (by 321 runs). Their semi-final chase of 132 against Sri Lanka was clinical, led by Malhotra’s unbeaten 61. Overall, India’s batting firepower (team average 85.3) and bowling economy (4.2 rpo) have been unmatched.Pakistan stumbled in their opener against India but rebounded spectacularly, thrashing UAE by 70 runs and Malaysia by 297 runs (powered by Minhas’ unbeaten 177). Their semi-final masterclass—Subhan’s 4/20 dismantling Bangladesh—showed grit, but the batting fragility exposed against India (all out for 150) looms large.

Head-to-head in U19 ODIs:

India leads 10-3 in recent encounters, including this tournament’s group clash.

Spotlight on Stars: Tournament Stats That Matter

The tournament has unearthed gems on both sides, with batsmen feasting on flatter tracks and bowlers striking in clusters. Below are highlights of the top performers from India and Pakistan, based solely on ACC U19 Asia Cup 2025 stats (4 matches each unless noted).

These numbers underscore why this final could hinge on key matchups like Minhas vs Devendran.

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Top Batsmen (India & Pakistan Focus)

Player
Team
Matches
Runs
Avg
SR
Highlights
Sameer Minhas
PAK
4
299
149.50
103.82
Unbeaten 177 vs MAL; 50 vs BAN; all-rounder with 0 wkts but vital cameos.
Abhigyan Kundu
IND
4
263
263.00
151.15
Unbeaten 209* vs MAL (1st Indian U19 double ton); 54* in SF chase.
Vaibhav Suryavanshi
IND
4
235
58.75
176.69
Explosive 171 off 95 vs UAE; SR king, 5 sixes in one innings.
Aaron George
IND
3
212
106.00
100.95
Three straight 50s; 85 vs PAK in group stage.
Ahmed Hussain
PAK
4
212
106.00
92.58
Lower-order rescues; leg-spin adds value (see bowling).
Vihaan Malhotra
IND
4
149
49.67
114.62
61* in SF; consistent anchor at No. 3.
Ayaan Misbah
PAK
3
243
81.00
99.18
Quick 80s; aggressive opener.


(Note: Zawad Abrar (BAN, 224 runs) leads non-Indo-Pak, but focus here on finalists.)
Top Bowlers (India & Pakistan Focus)

 

Player
Team
Matches
Wkts
Avg
Econ
Highlights
Deepesh Devendran
IND
4
11
14.5
3.8
5/22 vs MAL; 3/28 vs PAK (dismissed Minhas); joint tournament lead.
Abdul Subhan
PAK
4
11
15.2
4.1
4/20 in SF vs BAN; pace menace, joint lead with Devendran.
Kanishk Chouhan
IND
4
6
18.0
4.5
3/33 vs PAK; SR 127 as batter too; all-round threat.
Ali Raza
PAK
4
5
22.4
4.8
Early strikes; 3 wkts vs IND in group (but expensive).
Niqab Shafiq
PAK
4
4
25.0
5.2
Two-wicket burst vs IND; middle-overs control.


(Other notables: Sethmika Seneviratne (SL, 8 wkts) but finalists dominate the top.)

These stats reveal India’s edge in batting depth (four players over 149 runs) and bowling variety, while Pakistan relies on Minhas’ consistency and Subhan’s fire to disrupt.

Plausibility of an Upset: Can Pakistan Topple the Giants?

India enters as clear favorites—around 60-65% win probability—bolstered by their group-stage romp over Pakistan and superior net run rate (+4.5 vs +2.1). Mhatre’s side has lost just 12 wickets across five games, with openers Suryavanshi and Mhatre averaging 120+ partnerships. If they bat first and post 280+, Pakistan’s shaky middle order (combined avg 22) could crumble again.

Yet, Pakistan’s plausibility isn’t negligible at 35-40%. Their semi-final script—bowling out a strong Bangladesh cheaply—mirrors what Subhan and Raza could do on a gripping Dubai pitch. Minhas (299 runs) has been a rock, and if Hussain’s leg-spin (2+ wkts potential) clicks, they could defend 220-240.

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The rivalry’s intangibles—pressure on India to avoid a choke, Pakistan’s “nothing-to-lose” momentum—add spice. Historical upsets (Pakistan’s 2018 U19 WC win over India) remind us: one early breakthrough, and the script flips.In a tournament defined by youth and fire, expect boundaries, bouncers, and heartbreak. Will India extend their stranglehold, or will Pakistan script redemption? The final ball will tell.

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