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Three reasons:
-
Starting point was collapse-level risk
Reserves near $4bn meant default was priced in. -
Rate cycle turned supportive
SBP moved from 22% → ~10.5% (see TradingEconomics data you shared). -
Domestic liquidity replaced foreign flows
Retail participation surged (15,287 new UINs in Dec-25 alone).
IMF didn’t create growth—it removed panic.
Which PSX Sectors Benefit Most During IMF Programs
Short-Term Winners
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Banks (rates, liquidity, government paper)
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Energy (policy protection, cash flows)
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Fertilizers (subsidy logic, agri stability)
Medium-Term Losers
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Autos (unless rates fall meaningfully)
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FMCGs (price controls, inflation politics)
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Highly leveraged cyclicals
IMF cycles favor balance sheets, not stories.
Why “IMF Exit” Talk Doesn’t Move Markets
You said it plainly—and correctly:
IMF programmes end only when governance begins.
Markets agree.
IMF exit rhetoric without:
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Export reform
-
Tax enforcement
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Governance credibility
is treated as noise.
PSX rallies on cash certainty, not speeches.
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