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Strategic Outlook
The coming two years will hinge on whether deterrence hardens into conflict or softens into structured compromise. Iran’s nuclear posture, Saudi diplomatic recalibration, Israeli security doctrine, American force projection, and BRICS multipolar expansion form an interlocking system. Miscalculation in one domain reverberates across all others.
The lesson of the past two decades is clear: wars reshape landscapes but rarely resolve underlying legitimacy crises. Credibility, not coercion alone, determines strategic durability.
The Middle East in 2026 will not be defined by who shouted loudest — but by who structured incentives most intelligently.
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