Scenario Framework: How to Think About 2025–26
Rather than predicting prices, it is more useful to think in scenarios.
Base Case (Most Likely)
-
Gradual rate easing
-
Continued IMF alignment
-
Selective sector rotation
-
Modest index movement with high dispersion
Upside Case
-
Faster rate cuts
-
External inflows improve
-
Banks and cyclicals outperform temporarily
Downside Case
-
External shock or policy slippage
-
FX pressure returns
-
Capital retreats into defensives
Notice what is missing from all three cases:
There is no broad speculative boom.
What Investors Commonly Misunderstand
Many PSX participants confuse price movement with opportunity.
In capital-preservation phases:
READ: [Pakistani Rupee To USD] How High Will Pakistani Rupee Appreciate In Exchange With US Dollars?
if ( function_exists( 'pgntn_display_pagination' ) ) pgntn_display_pagination( 'multipage' );
